Through the implicit study of the new US administration strategy towards Tehran, we reach the conclusion that the doors are still open to all possibilities and options, and despite the difficulties in taking decisive actions towards the Iranian regime by the Trump’s administration, it is clear that the US policy of escalation with Iran, putting pressure on it and imposing more sanctions, that will affect Iran’s interior, will return.
The Iranian regime’s strategic mistake after lifting of the sanctions and the consequent freeing of the frozen billions of dollars and gaining other billions, thanks to the partial opening on the global economy and international trade, as well as exporting oil, was its trust of the durability of the deal and its impossible failure, therefore, it started to spend and waste billions of dollars on its regional project through interventions, support and funding the pro-Iranian groups in the region. Thus, now that it is too late, and with the possibility of the Nuclear Deal collapse and tightening sanctions against Tehran, the Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guard are in a political and economic predicament that is difficult for them to endure for a long time.
With regard to any decision the US administration might take on the Nuclear Deal, there is fertile ground and many incentives for America to impose new sanctions on Iran, including the continuation of the latter to launch ballistic missiles, its refusal to extend the time limits for producing nuclear fuel, the intelligence reports on Iran capability of producing a nuclear weapon in less than a year, its continuation of supporting terrorism and undermining the security and stability of the region and the world and its violation of international laws, conventions and human rights. All of the above provides a justification and motivation for an automatic re-imposition of US economic sanctions against Iran.
According to US President Trump, the new strategy on Tehran will go through four main elements:
First: Revitalizing traditional alliances and regional partnerships as bulwarks against Iranian subversion and restore a more stable balance of power in the region.
Second: Neutralizing the Government of Iran’s destabilizing influence and constraining its aggression, particularly its support for terrorism and militants.
Third: Countering threats to the United States and its allies from ballistic missiles and other asymmetric weapons.
Fourth: Denying the Iranian regime all paths to a nuclear weapon
It is certain that Iran’s non-compliance with the terms of the Nuclear Deal will be announced. This will necessitate imposing additional strict sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the Quds Force and some Iranian figures and institutions. Additionally, tightening the sanctions on Tehran, outside the Nuclear Deal, over its missile program, its support for terrorism, its destabilizing activities in the region and its black record of abusing human rights and international conventions. It is now likely that the Revolutionary Guard will be classified as a terrorist organization that no one should deal with. This will eventually lead to the collapse of the nuclear agreement, even from the Iranian side, especially by the hardline movement that had rejected the agreement form the very beginning and even after signing it and its accusation of Rouhani’s government of treason after succeeding in reaching an agreement with the six-party international group.
We should mention that the biggest evidence of Iran’s violation of the Nuclear Deal that the Iranian nuclear program is managed by the Revolutionary Guard and the hardline movement, who have refused the Deal even after signing it, and considered it an entrance for enemies through which they can intervene in the Iranian state. Which means their lack of commitment to the terms of the Deal since its inception. moreover, their insistence on refusing to inspect military sites suspected of containing secret nuclear activities further confirms Iran’s violation of the Nuclear Deal, as confirmed by global intelligence reports.
Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre
19 October 2017