Analyzing the future of the current Qatari crisis since its beginning has not been complicated or difficult, and its results have been so clear, and it only needed some contemplations and a realistic consideration of the causes and consequences of this crisis, the potential of its parties and their ability to withstand, away from the ideologies and populist rhetoric and deceptive emotions.
Those who thought that Qatar could oppose the will of the international community were either those whom their minds have been controlled emotions and ideology, or those who had personal interests in prolonging this crisis to loot more money and gain higher positions through their loyalties to the Qatari regime. However, all studies and research centers and institutions, experts and observers have developed a single result, as the only outcome of the current crisis, regardless of the different methods and scenarios, which is that Qatar will return to the Arab and Gulf sphere despite of the regime there, and that could be achieved through several scenarios. The first is the admission of the Qatari regime and its compliance with the demands of the Arab Quartet, or the fall of the regime and handing the lead over to wise leaders who will be aware of the dangers of the regime’s policy on Qatar itself and on the region in general.
However, the interference of foreign factors in the crisis, such as Iran, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood, has increased the stubbornness of the regime in Qatar, making it more difficult to bring it back to its senses, especially after losing the possibility of making sovereign decisions regarding the current crisis and its relations with the countries of the region. Therefore, getting rid of the regime has become the only option in a way that does not harm the brotherly country Qatar and its Arab people.
days of the Qatari regime are numbered, and the end is looming considering the increasing Qatari opposition and its attraction for wise and popular political figures who have influence over the Qatari interior, especially those of the Al-Thani family. The Qatari opposition has been able to attract new names from the ruling family of Qatar, including Sheikh Mubarak bin Khalifa Al Thani. A meeting by this opposition under the name of “Save Qatar” was held in conjunction with the celebration of Qatar National Day, which gathered more than 20 Qatari personalities from the family of Al Thani, who all stressed for the need to change the regime and to put an end for its dangerous policies on the country and the region and the need to return Qatar to its Gulf and Arab sphere. The participants expressed their extreme rage from the behavior of the Qatari leaders and their dependence on Iran and linking the fate of the country with the terrorism of the Revolutionary Guard and the ambitions of the Muslim Brotherhood.
This meeting came as an outcome of some of the Qatari, regional and global moves that aim to pave the way for the post-regime period, through the formation of a national rescue government abroad and to prepare it to take over after the fall of the regime. The date of this meeting and its strength indicate the near comeback of Qatar to the Gulf row. Reports confirm that there is a wide range of the Qatari opposition at home that is increasing rapidly despite the security restrictions imposed by the Qatari security services with the support of elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
What is new in the Qatari opposition is that it has started to attract leaders and influential figures who work in the organs and institutions of Qatar, some of them have not been identified and who did not openly express their opposition fearing the regime’s oppression and its oppressive methods. However, indications confirm that in the event of any opposition movement within the country, these figures and leaders will openly join the opposition. Moreover, there are those who support the regime for the moment, but when they will see the ship sinking, they will seek safety very quickly and jump out of it.
Sooner or later, all estimates and projections based on studies, research and analyzes confirm that the outcome of the Qatari crisis has become clear: the return of Qatar to the Arabian and Gulf sphere, whether by complying with the demands of the Arab quartet or choosing to leave the power.
Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre
20 December 2017