Six days after the erupt of the Iranian peoples’ demonstrations against the regime and its government, the vision became clearer to where the situation is heading in Iran. Despite an expected suppression by the Revolutionary Guard and its organs, and despite all threats, repression, killings, banning social media and cutting off the Internet … the protests’ circle is expanding day after day and hour after hour. After circulating the news of the fall of more than 15 civilian demonstrators by the Revolutionary Guard, demonstrations widened more rapidly, and it is expected that more than 70 cities to come out for mass demonstrations, according to a poster spread widely through social media sites, in which the time and place of the demonstrations in the assembly points. It is also expected that Azerbaijan province (southern Azerbaijan) will join the demonstrations, which will have a significant impact on the success of the Iranian revolution against the mullahs’ regime.
The Iranian authorities, so far, have taken several measures to contain the protests, all failed. They arrested hundreds of people, warned of foreign conspiracies against Iran, deployed security forces and Basij elements, hit the protestors with an iron fist, banned the most widespread mean of social media in Iran, Telegram. News also has been circulating about cutting the Internet all over Iran, but despite all has mentioned above, the protests are still widening, and everyone is watching what the events will lead to.
Revisiting Iran’s revolutionary history and looking at the dire situation of the Iranian peoples and what the country’s policies have brought of isolation and problems at all levels, the reasons for the eruption of a revolution that ends the regime in Iran at the moment are much bigger than these that brought down the rule of the Shah Pahlavi, 37 years ago. In addition, we have published in Al-Mezmaah Centre some studies on the Iranian issue where we compared the age of the current Iranian regime with the age of the dictatorships, which did not exceed 40 years. These studies have concluded that the Iranian regime has expired and cannot live any more as it is not acceptable by the Iranian peoples at home and by the international community abroad.
All indicators, whether political, economic or social, prove that the majority of the Iranian peoples want to remove the mullahs’ regime and they look forward to opening up to the other societies and catch up with the age of technology and the progress and development that it offers. Especially that the thinking and aspirations of the contemporary youth generation are completely different from the ideas of Khomeini, which has become a public policy of the country. This is what was expressed by the Green Movement, which broke out in 2009 and whose aim was to topple the regime. Today, it renews its rejection of the regime of the Wali al-Faqih and its policies by launching the slogan of death to Rouhani and death to the dictator (Khamenei), in addition to burning photos of Khamenei and Qasem Soleimani, the architect of the Iranian terrorist activities abroad. This time, however, the cause of the revolution is much stronger, and peoples’ patience is over, and they have decided to get rid of the regime.
The events are going to escalate as the people have decided and said their word. These demonstrations will be the beginning of a huge revolution may be supported by the Iranian army to get rid of the Wali al-Faqih regime. Moreover, what is so obvious now is the impact of these events on the Iranian interior as well as on the regional issues and crises. On the inside, these demonstrations will intensify the division between the political currents, while each one will try to exploit them in its advantage and against the others, which means the intensification of political and partisan conflicts in Iran.
The most important of these is the impact of these demonstrations on the regional crises, especially in the areas where there is an Iranian presence. Yemen is the most notable example as the Iranian protests will accelerate the fall of al-Houthi since the Revolutionary Guard, the biggest supporter of al-Houthi, will be distracted by the internal events, and consequently leading to the weakness and imminent collapse of the Houthi group and cleansing Yemen from them as soon as possible. The fall of the Iranian regime would also mean the fall of the Syrian regime!
In terms of the Qatari crisis, the regime in Qatar is going to lose its main supporter of its insisting on terrorist activities. Iran’s aid to Qatar will also begin to decline gradually, which will also accelerate the compliance of the regime, or, otherwise, strengthen the opposition to become able to change the regime.
If the Iranian rebels will have applied more pressure on the Iranian regime, the region will witness a decline in the level of terrorist activities, which will make it easier for the countries that fight terrorism on their work. This means the necessity of concerted international efforts to support the Iranian people seeking their rights to remove this regime and its bloody ideas and policies, as part of the fight against terrorism and uprooting its roots.
Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre
3 January 2018