Turkish military campaigns against the Syrian Kurdish areas continue while President Erdogan confirms that these operations will not stop until all their objectives are fully achieved, stressing that the so-called Olive Branch Operation is completing and an expansion for the Euphrates Shield Operation.
What is surprising is the international community’s silence towards the Turkish military operations in Afrin and towards the crimes against women, children and civilians! Turkish operations have killed dozens of civilians so far and displaced hundreds of families.
The Turkish government under the Justice and Development Party faces dozens of political, economic and social crises. There are thousands of people who were arrested and double who have been expelled from their jobs because of, as Erdogan claims, their role in the failed coup d’état that took place in the summer of 2016. Moreover, Turkey has isolated itself and earned more enemies after the its recent military operation in Afrin, through which all United Nations charters and principles of non-use of force in international relations were flagrantly violated.
Erdogan seeks to restore the glory of the Ottoman Empire by intervening in the region’s states, and his attempt to deploy military bases, experts believe, that they do not reflect Turkey’s power, and Ankara will not be able to expand its influence as desired by Erdogan. In this case, the fate of the ruling regime is linked with the feasibility of these bases as well as the Turkish influence and intervention, which seems to be useless and even inflict damage to Turkey itself by widening the circle of its enemies and thus increasing its isolation politically and economically. The principle of giving the priority of the military force over political and economic strength is a strategic mistake Erdogan is insisting and his Party are insisting to make.
According to observers and experts, Turkish military operations in Afrin, are undermining regional and global security and peace, and open the doors widely to further spread of terrorist groups and extremism. Analysts also believe that recent operation was the result of Erdogan’s irrational policy and his hasty and ill-considered decisions. It also points out to the imbalance policy within Turkey’s ruling party, which favors the interests of the Muslim Brotherhood over Turkish national interests. In other words, Turkey has become like Qatar, hostage for the Ikhwani thought.
By following Erdogan’s statements, we can sense the real intentions of Turkey’s moves in Syria. Where he said more than once that the operation will not stop at Afrin but will include the Syrian north all the way to the Iraqi border. Which means that the aim of these moves is not to preserve the Turkish national security as Erdogan claims, but to expand the influence and control over Northern Syrian, which is completely contrary to international laws and principles of the United Nations, especially since all victims who fall in the military operations, launched by Erdogan’s regime on Afrin in northern Syria are in fact civilians of children and women!
All have agreed that the objectives of the Turkish military operations in the Syrian Kurdish areas go beyond the fight against terrorism and the preservation of the Turkish national security. The Turkish presidency knows very well that Kurdish forces are supported by the United States to fight terrorism and to prevent any Iranian control of the Syrian-Iraqi border and they are not there to jeopardize the security and stability of Turkey. Which means that there is a plot and conspiring agreements between Turkey and Iran at the expense of Arab countries!
In fact, we have not seen any real Turkish objection to the US presence in Syria, which seems to be planned for the long-run and part of the American strategy in Syria. The United States is following the developments in northern Syria with the policy of wait and see until it becomes able to see the real situation on which it can build its decisions and put its policies. This means that the United States knows very well that the Turkish military operations in northern Syria will take a long time, contrary to the calculations of the Turkish regime, which will benefit the American presence in the region. The longer this war will be, the more losses of the Turkish side, which would accelerate the collapse of Erdogan’s reputation on the political and popular levels.
Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre
31 January 2018