The Qatari regime has cornered itself in the dilemma of choosing between regional and international powers, namely between the United States and Iran. This regime’s main approach has been relying primarily on manipulating contradictions, double standards and the try to hold all keys, such an approach has become outdated and has no place in such decisive times that the region is going through now. This regime can no longer maneuver and buy the silence of the United States while maintaining close relations with the Iranian regime, especially since the security and military cooperation between Tehran and Doha has become one of the main reasons for American anger over this regime, who is not even capable to dissipate that cooperation after the Revolutionary Guard’s broke through all its institutions.

Tensions’ escalation between Iran and the United States following the latter’s withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal, and with the near confrontation between Washington and Tehran over this crisis, has put Doha in the dilemma of choosing between these two parties, especially that any outcomes would affect Doha directly. Either Doha will risk its relationship with the United States, and this is not possible, or risk its relationship with Iran, which it cannot afford as well!

This narrow corner, and the compulsory option that must be made between the bad and the worse, will be a harsh lesson for the Qatari regime, a break point in its history and a new stage of no more tampering with the security of the countries and peoples of the region. The idea of “the alliance of the Arab and internationally isolated regimes (the Qatari and the Iranian) can no longer form a lifeline for both” and can no longer work. On the contrary, the Iranian and Qatari regimes in the current circumstances are much similar to two men who do not know how to swim and drowning and each beg each other for help, thinking that he will save him.

The Qatari regime shares its Iranian counterpart the same amount of confusion and fear of the consequences of Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Deal since that Deal has not guaranteed that Iran will not have access to nuclear weapons and what it has contributed to a large extent to the expansion of Iranian terrorism as well as that the Iranian regime has not complied with all its articles.

Comes after Iran, Qatar is the most affected country by the United States’ decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Deal, as this means the collapse of the Deal and the re-imposition of American sanctions against Tehran, which constitute about 90% of the total international sanctions. Qatar will be the second loser after Iran, and its loss varies between political and economic, as Iran will lose its ability to continue to support the Qatari regime, and will be occupied of dealing with its internal crises, with the Revolutionary Guard maintaining its relations with Doha and its activities within it, which will bring American anger to the Qatari regime, and this would eventually translated into the change of the regime, the most expected scenarios by the US side towards the Qatari insurgency.

Therefore, the Qatari regime is going to lose its biggest allies after losing its Arab and Gulf sphere because of its reckless adventures and its losing bets on regional countries that embrace subversive and expansionist projects and agendas at the expense of Arab countries and peoples, especially Iran’s and Erdogan’s regimes, which are suffering internal crises and international and regional isolation that drove them to be preoccupied with their concerns rather supporting the Doha regime. Even the current events indicate that the Iranian and Turkish regimes are suffering from the hatred of the international community as well as the peoples of the region because of the wars they made and the killing of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of millions. They are currently in a regional and global isolation that is threatening their continuation in power with their losing control gradually at home, especially in Iran where it witnessed demonstrations in more than 140 cities.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

9 May 2018