Since its intervention in the Syrian crisis immediately after the outbreak in 2011 to salvage its most important allies in the region, the regime of Bashar al-Assad, and Iran is suffering losses in all economic and military aspects in addition to hundreds of convoys of coffins which have been sent from Syria to Iran carrying the bodies of elements and officers of the Revolutionary Guard and mercenaries of the Iranian regime. However, the recent period has been the harshest and the toughest for Iran’s presence in Syria so far following the successive US and Israeli air strikes on military positions of the Iranian militias and Hezbollah, which suffered unprecedented losses in equipment and lives.
These losses posed a severe embarrassment to the Iranian regime in front of its people as well as the international community alike, since it has been denying any military presence in Syria, except for a number of military advisers. The recent military strikes, however, on its militias in Syria forced it to scream and wail because of the great losses and pain these strikes have caused, which also made the Iranian statements on this regard full of contradictions and suffers from severe flaws.
The most important reason for Iran’s inability to respond to the military strikes against its forces in Syria, or even to admit of these strikes, as well as its denial of any military presence in Syria, is simply because it is unable to respond. The recognition of these strikes will put Tehran in a bind before its allies in the region, and could reveal the hoax of resistance and the deception in the Iranian statements and threats, which has long been boasted by the leaders of the Iranian regime who keep threatening to wipe Israel from the map and that Iran will not remain silent in the event of any attack. Therefore, the disclosure of these strikes would make Iran bound before its allies to respond, something it cannot do.
Heavy and successive blows to the Iranian militias in more than one point in Syria. The latest of which took place when dozens of Iranian elements have fallen by air strikes of unknown source on the Syrian-Iraqi border in the vicinity of the area of Al-Bukamal. According to experts, the aim of these strikes is to break the path that Iran sought to establish in various ways, which links Tehran to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria.
The Iranian regime believes that the Revolutionary Guard has failed in many areas and has wasted a lot of money and caused the loss of hundreds of lives. Therefore, it is now looking for ways to compensate those losses, instead of trying to achieve impossible victories here and there, especially after the despair and frustration of the regime political leaders and fear of the explosion of internal situation that may lead to a popular revolution. Therefore, the mullahs’ regime is now looking for a solution that could prevent its fall, and this has been found in the try to open channels of serious negotiations with the United States where Iran can offer more concessions in exchange of easing the pressure on it. This has been taken negatively by the Iranian newspapers and news agencies, which accused the sponsors of this proposal, i.e. the reformers, of betrayal. However, the disclosure of this issue is nothing but a plan by the regime to feel the pulse of the Iranian street.
The Iranian regime, after its bitter defeats in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, has only one solution to evade it fall. It is making more concessions under the negotiations’ cover by which it agrees to withdraw its forces from Syria, stops supporting the Houthis and offers scapegoats, headed by Qassim Soleimani, in exchange of easing the pressure on it. With the absence of negotiations and the inability of the Iranian regime to withstand more in Syria and Yemen and bear more losses, it will resort to this trick in an attempt to survive as long as possible.
Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre
21 June 2018