A situation of great concern and confusion the Iranian regime is going through nowadays. This is an inevitable outcome of the interventionist policies it pursued in the region while abandoning and neglecting the situation at home, paying the most attention on exporting its revolution, spreading Shiism, creating and funding armed groups and wasting national wealth on projects that have brought only the destruction and frustration to the Iranian peoples and all the peoples of the region.

These policies have cast a negative shadow on the Iranian interior, affecting citizens’ living conditions, increasing the gap between the ruler and the governed as well as the divisions and conflicts among political currents, and it is no longer possible for the regime to deny this fact or hide it. Despite the growing calls by the Iranian regime for unity in order to face external threats, these calls have been received with anger and refusal, as it became clear for the Iranians that such calls are just the usual deceiving propaganda and there is no way that they will be fooled by such allegations any more!

The Iranian regime is caught in the middle of internal upheaval and external sanctions, and is being through the worst of its time since its inception in 1979. These conditions were expressed by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who has become unstable in his recent statements, in which he posed an empty threat that Iran is capable to hamper exporting oil from the region by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, or by any other terrorist way! Rouhani said that if the export of the Iranian oil stops, it is not possible for the region’s oil exporting to continue!

These statements are implicit recognition of the terrorist approach of Iran and Tehran’s destructive behavior in the region. Despite Iran’s inability to implement such threats, this clearly points to the terrorist ideology and mentality that controls the leaders of the Iranian regime. It also reveals the real and extreme face of President Hassan Rouhani, whom the regime has tried to present as a reformist moderate, in order to deceive both the Iranian interior and the international community.

Back to these threats, Iran is completely incapable of implementing them, and is totally incapable of preventing the export of oil from the region. Therefore, this noise comes within the populist rhetoric the regime is pursuing and for local consumption, which is intensified by the Iranian regime whenever it feels the danger of falling, which is today at its worst after the Iranian people at home and abroad declared their rejection of it and went out in demonstrations and protests will not stop until it is toppled. While the opposition abroad is expanding rapidly and has increased international support while the US administration is determined to tighten sanctions on Tehran and making the level of its oil exports reaches zero. Everyone knows that the Iranian economy is ‎revenue-generating economy and depends mainly on the export of oil and gas, drug trafficking and human trafficking, which means that US sanctions will make Iran losing most important income. In this case, the Iranian economy will not be able to resist for more than 6 months.

Iran would have angry reactions to the US sanctions and since it does not have any pressure cards on the United States or the European countries and there will be no Obama to support it and save its regime from falling, so its reaction might go to the region by carrying out terrorist operations that threaten its security and stability and try to block the export of oil in retaliation for US sanctions. Moreover, it is not unlikely that the Revolutionary Guard might harass oil shipments and maritime navigation in general in the Arabian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, as well as pushing some Iranian-backed terrorist groups to commit follies and carry out terrorist activities targeting shipping routes and making attempts to provoke Gulf oil exporting countries.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

July 5,  2018