Trump’s call on Iran to negotiate without preconditions puts the ball in Iran’s court. However, those who think that this is a sign of a US retreat are mistaken, especially since this change came after a war of words and threats from both sides.
Trump’s move has put Iran in a dilemma and made its leaders floundering right and left. On one hand, they are unable to take a unified position or a decisive response agreed upon towards this call by those in power, and on the other hand, they do not know how to deal with the new sanctions, which will intensify on the 4th of November this year to include the export of oil, which the state’s budget depends on by 70%. And this would mean the collapse of the most important pillar the Iranian regime is standing on.
What Iran needs at the moment is wisdom and rationality, as well as sitting on the negotiation table with the United States to reach an agreement. However, that is exactly what the Revolutionary Guard will not allow, since this may reveal the reality of the regime and expose the Revolutionary Guard before the Iranian people and the peoples of the region who were deceived by the principle of Iran’s resistance to the enemies of the nation. Moreover, reaching a deal with the United States depends on solving two basic things: Iran’s nuclear and missile program, and the Iranian behavior and the interventions of the Revolutionary Guard and the Quds Force in the region, and that will not be possible since the survival of the Iranian regime is entirely dependent on these two elements.
However, the persistence of the Iranian intransigence and the reliance on secret negotiations led by the Revolutionary Guard away from the Iranian government will not succeed as the main goal of the US administration’s from re-imposing sanctions on Iran is to rein in the activities of the Revolutionary Guard and to stop destabilizing the countries of the region, which have become a threat to the US regional interests. Therefore, the United States will reject any negotiations with anyone but the Iranian presidency, which will not be allowed by the Revolutionary Guard. And this would means taking the crisis into a dark tunnel.
This period in which Iran is going through is considered to be the most difficult one since the outset of this regime in 1979, as the decision-making process and determination of positions is not as easy as before. There are not many alternatives and options have become scarce and very limited. All reports, studies and opinions of experts and specialists indicate that Iran’s economy survival is dependent mainly on negotiations with the United States!
Trump’s policies towards Iran have become the peg on which the officials in Tehran are hanging their mistakes and weaknesses of their administration by promoting the idea that all the problems people suffer are caused by America’s policies and its hostility to Iran. And since Trump has now called on Tehran for negotiation, those who hold on power in Iran have no peg any more to hang their failures on or to hide the real reasons of these crises and problems, i.e. corruption, interference in regional affairs and the Revolutionary Guards’ pursuit of a nuclear weapon that threatens the security and stability of the region and the world. All the above reasons are rejected by the Iranian peoples, who aspire to live a decent life away from the problems that are worsening day after day till they reached the point of threatening their lives.
The above undoubtedly confirms that Iran’s situation is heating up on all political and public levels and that there is a state of divisions and disagreements among political decision-makers. Supreme Leader Ali can no longer deal with these divisions or even control them, because the ship is sinking. And the situation has entered a state of confusion, and there is a state of popular dissatisfaction has emerged recently through the outbreak of popular demonstrations in a number of Iranian cities to protest against the very poor living conditions. And with the re-imposition and intensifying sanctions in next November, this would definitely mean that crises and problems will escalate and worsen, and the demonstrations and protests that are calling for the overthrow of the regime will increase as well.
Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre
Augut 8, 2018