Iran has been using its wealth and financial resources in supporting and arming its armed groups in the region which received billions of dollars every year. The screws were tightened on Iran when the economic sanctions imposed on it in the years prior to the Nuclear Deal. These sanctions have paid off and greatly undermined terrorism and those who destabilized the security of the region. However, this Deal came as a life line for the Iran and gave the regime after lifting the sanctions hundreds of billions of dollars, which in turn were used to re-strengthen the capabilities of terrorist groups in the region once again. Hence, the Nuclear Deal was the main reason for reviving the terrorist groups in the region.

The world thought that reaching an agreement with Tehran on its nuclear program could help stabilize the region. For that, most countries supported the negotiations that led to that deal between Tehran and the great powers. However, the outcome of this agreement was very negative, and could not stop Iran’s terrorist activities and this proves that Tehran was and is still determined to support terrorism and destabilize the region, which makes the re-imposition of sanctions on Tehran an absolutely necessity in combating terrorism.

The US sanctions on Tehran have begun to bear fruit, as the Iranian economy lost in one week the investments of many international corporations, the national currency deteriorated more and more, and divisions and disagreements among the decision-makers in Tehran intensified between those calling for the need to negotiate with the United States, and those who refuse it completely. This situation has greatly affected the national unity that the Supreme Leader seeks to demonstrate as coherent and solid, but to no avail. Reports confirm that the situation is getting worse inside Iran and that the people are preparing for the uprising against the mullah’s rule, and even some political, military and security figures are thinking seriously to jump off the ship of the mullahs, which is about to drown.

But, the coming days will be more severe if Iran is prevented from exporting its oil, which provides 70% of the state budget. On November the 4th, strict sanctions will be imposed on Tehran, upon which the Revolutionary Guard have repeatedly threatened to take several measures as a response, such as closing the Strait of Hormuz. However, experts, as well as some leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, emphasize that Iran is absolutely incapable of doing so, and thus such threats are only for domestic consumption and for raising concern over the world’s most important waterways for oil.

Most experts assert that Iran will never resort to war, especially against a superpower such as the United States, because of its severe military weakness, which has become very clear in recent years because of its inability to modernize its military sectors and adopting asymmetric wars techniques only by the Revolutionary Guard. Moreover, the Iranian regime knows that going to a war would mean its fall, hence, Iran would have no option but to bow to the American conditions and to accept a new deal covering its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, its regional role, and its military presence in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine.

Otherwise, the most Iran can do is to push its terrorist groups in the region, mainly the Houthis, to carry out terrorist attacks against oil carriers and US interests in more than one place. But that will not last long, because Iran’s terrorist agents will be the biggest losers of re-imposing sanctions on Iran, because the latter will not be able to continue its support and fund for these groups, meaning getting weak gradually, and within months will be forced to raise the white flag and surrender or fall!

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

Augut 13, 2018