It is known that countries that approach Qatar will suffer economically, and their currency will drop to the lowest levels. Some might say that is something to do with the concept of pessimism, but it is a fact which has been demonstrated by the Iranian and Turkish rapprochement with the Qatari regime, especially after the outbreak of the current Qatari crisis and following Tehran and Ankara support the hostile Qatari positions against the Arab brothers. Although the Iranian and Turkish support has been limited to the security, political and media aspects, the economies of the two countries have been significantly affected, and these countries have lost more than half the value of their national currency, which indicates the wrong policies pursued by Iran and Turkey towards regional files and their direct and indirect interventions in the affairs of the region.

During this year, the Iranian currency lost more than 50% of its value, as the dollar is worth now over 120 thousand riyals. While the Turkish lira lost more than 40% of its value and exceeded the seven liras limit per dollar during last week’s trading, a historical collapse puts the economy of both countries to the unknown. Iran has entered the stage of economic collapse where inflation reached record highs of more than 12%, while in Turkey has reached more than 15% and continues to rise in both countries.

These collapses have several reasons, foremost of which is the support of both countries for terrorist groups in the region, playing roles larger than their sizes in the regional files, their blatant interference in the affairs of the region, the economic sanctions imposed on them, and more importantly hostile policies against Arab countries that combat terrorism with the aim of supporting the Qatari regime and its stance towards the boycotting countries. The latter reason is most likely one, because the crises in Iran and Turkey have worsened greatly after they announced their support to the regime in Qatar in the current crisis, which negatively affected their relations with the rest of the countries in the region.

These rapid collapses worried the ruling regime in Doha and made it unable to make decisions about the Turkish and Iranian crises. However, the Qatari regime was unable to withstand Turkish threats and extortion and quickly paid the bill of Ankara’s protection; 15 billion dollars in the form of new investments and deposits, during Tamim’s visit to Ankara in light of the economic crisis in Turkey, and the collapse of the national currency against the dollar.

In fact, this step will be fruitless, as such amount of money will have no impact on Turkey’s economic crisis since it will continue to worsen with the tightened US sanctions. On the other hand, this amount will not be enough to pay the bill of Turkey’s protection of the Qatari regime and thus Qatar will have to either pump more money in the Turkish market or lose one of its biggest allies. But, it is unlikely that the patience of the United States will last forever and will keep turning blind eye to Qatar’s behavior in the region which could pose the possibility of US sanctions on Qatar!

As is clear from Ankara’s propaganda policy, it is currently seeking, with the aggravation of its economic crises, to deceive the regime in Qatar that without its soldiers, Doha could have faced an inevitable collapse and without the Turkish intervention in time, Doha would have been fallen, or perhaps invaded by the armies of the boycotting countries, although the Arab quartet did not contemplate any military action against Qatar. Iran is also repeating the same thing to Qatar. This means that Doha’s regime has fallen into the Persians and Turks trap, and is now paying a heavy price.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

Augut 19, 2018