Iranian officials are in competition in which they are trying their best to minimize the consequences of the new sanctions imposed on their country. Some of whom considered these sanctions without any impact, and others expected little damage which Iran can resist, and a third team confirmed that its impact and damage will only affect the US economy, while Iran and its economic sectors are completely safe!

In contrast, Iranian experts and specialists are trying to raise awareness of the seriousness of these sanctions and their effect on the short and long term. Some stress that these sanctions are the toughest and the harshest ones Iran has ever countered, and they cannot be confronted at all, and their continuation for more than two years would mean the collapse for the Iranian economy. Others believe that Iran’s ability to withstand these sanctions will not exceed ten months, less than a year, because these sanctions hit the heart of the Iranian economy and the main artery of the country’s treasury, the oil, so it is very dangerous that the regime tests the country’s ability to resist these sanctions because this would be complete ignorance and lack of experience and knowledge of the real nature and consequences of these sanctions.

Another group holds the Revolutionary Guard, the House of the Supreme Leader and the hard-liners responsible for what would happen to the country because of their insistence on their policies and exposing the country to the risk of collapse due to sanctions. This team is the opposition group inside Iran, which is subjected to a severe crackdown by the security forces because of its continuous demands for new negotiations with the United States and complying with its terms, including the extradition of the terrorist Qasem Soleimani, ending the control of the Revolutionary Guard over on the country’s affairs. therefore, solution requires that Iran change its policies, stops its interference and support for terrorism, ends the control of the Revolutionary Guard over the affairs of the country and abides by international laws and conventions in order to avoid sanctions that will certainly lead to a gradual collapse of the Iranian state that in turns would lead to chaos, insecurity and violent confrontations between the peoples and Iranian authorities.

In fact, what is seen by the third group is what has become the most prevalent trend within the Iranian interior, meaning that the Iranian internal opposition to the Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guard is beginning to gain ground and expand in an unprecedented manner. This approach has also found its way to political and military symbols, who began to express the need for change in the Iranian policy in full, especially in terms of its foreign affairs, to avoid such devastating sanctions. The spread of this perception has brought many national symbols inside Iran to the forefront, whether on the political, religious, social and cultural stages, and attracted more intellectuals and patriots, which has become a concern for the regime and the Revolutionary Guard, which began to blur these ideas and attack them by claiming that they serve the American and Zionist interests and harm the pride Iranian state, and accuses its promoters of treason and sabotaging and other countless charges, all ending with either imprisonment, torture or execution.

However, there are indications that this trend is expanding daily, which means that the political and security methods by the regime have so far failed to contain or stop it. Strengthening this trend depends on things that will definitely occur in Iran including rising poverty, unemployment and inflation, and the exacerbation of crises and economic, social and security problems, which are fundamental and important motives in the accession of Iranian peoples to this trend, and in their insistence on changing the country’s direction, which according to experts cannot be under the current regime, which the Iranian peoples have become fully aware of and waiting for the opportunity to revolt and uprise against this regime and ending its rule, which brought the woes and crises to the country and dragged it to the brink of abyss.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

November 8,  2018