There are now behind-the-scenes conversations among Iranian political circles and figures, and other powerful symbols on the Iranian Supreme Leader’s post and his absolute control over the country’s affairs, and the personality that could replace Ali Khamenei after his death. These discussions have become a source of an escalating disagreement between the political parties day after day, despite the keenness of the Khamenei to stop these discussions completely and considering it to be a taboo, and threating those who try to address it by many means that have been put already by the security services of the regime, including methods such as the one that the late politician Hashemi Rafsanjani had experiences when he was assassinated last year after breaking the taboos and bypassing the red lines of the Supreme Leader and Revolutionary Guard in demanding to hold consultations in order to determine the features and conditions of the person who will succeed Khamenei as a Supreme Leader to the country, as that was then considered a direct threat to the house of Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards.

Although the House of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard’s institution have dominated the process of selecting Khamenei’s successor, it can be said that door is opened to all possibilities. There are political currents supported by military and security leaders who plan for a comprehensive change in the structure of the country’s leadership by abolishing the Supreme Leader’s position or at least limiting his powers. Some other currents, however, are working to strip the post of the Supreme Leader from the family of Khamenei and his close associates, and handing it over to the family of Larijani, which is one of the strongest families in Iran, and the one that controls the judiciary through Sadeq Amoli Larijani, and the legislative authority through Ali Larijani, who is still maneuvering and holding the stick from the middle in his dealings with Iran’s political factions, with the aim of expanding his influence even more within Iran by trying to win everyone’s support.

These groups are mostly operating in secret, despite their goals are well known to the regime and the Revolutionary Guard, especially the group of Ali Hijazi, which seeks to make Sadeq Amoli Larijani the next Supreme Leader after major differences between him and Ali Khamenei as well as his son Mujtaba Khamenei, who is seeking to inherit his father, which is feared by the majority of Iranians who see him as a criminal, an enemy of humanity, development and internal and regional peace, especially as he was one of the main Iranian leaders who worked behind closed doors and conducted the repression against demonstrators during the Green Revolution in 2009, where millions of Iranians protested the policies of the Wali el-Faqih regime, as well as his role in rigging elections against reformist Mir Mousavi for the hardline Ahmadinejad.

Everyone knows that in such totalitarian and dictatorial regimes no one dares to declare their rejection and opposition to the policies of the regime, for several reasons, most importantly the fear of death! Therefore, they resort to work in secret to destroy the control of this regime over the country through political and security means and methods from behind the closed doors. Hence, opposition remains hidden until the opportunity to be then declared comes, and that is exactly what is happening in Iran now. There are people who show absolute loyalty to the Supreme Leader, such as Mohammad Khatami, Ali Hijazi, Hassan Rouhani, Ali Larijani and many others, while indeed they work in secret to get rid of this regime and its figures, and to reduce the control of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard in the country. This is well known to the symbols of the regime, who seek in turn to get rid of them in various ways to the extent of assassinating the most dangerous people to the regime, imposing house arrest on some, restricting the activities and actions of others and placing some senior officials under strict censorship.

One of the regime’s and its security apparatuses’ plans to take full control of the country and ensure that officials do not rebel or oppose the regime’s policies is to involve those who hold high and sensitive positions in the state institutions, especially political and military ones, in multiple accusations where their charges might reach the death sentence or life imprisonment. Therefore, using these accusations as a scarecrow to deter those officials and prevent them from carrying out any activity or work or even a statement hostile to the regime, and choosing between silence, surrender and submission, or the conversion of their charges to the court, and expose them to the public.

The charges against the Iranian officials vary, ranging from espionage to Iran’s enemies, corruption of all its forms and treachery which used by the regime as the stick that is used against those who dare to oppose the Supreme Leader.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

November 15 , 2018