While the Iranian government seems to be so desperate to overcome the growing economic crises including the currency deterioration; the high rates of poverty, unemployment, inflation, prices; shortages of goods and basic needs which barely cover half of the Iranian people’s needs; the United States appears to be going to put more pressure on the regime after a series of tough decisions against its terrorism and its subversive activities in the region, which revealed its true face and dropped all false slogans of resistance and defending the Islamic nation.
Meanwhile, it can be said that the Iranian regime has failed miserably in addressing its crises, both at home and abroad, but is still able to manage them in a way that seeks to accustom the interior to further deterioration of the situation, while keeping the iron grip wrapped around the necks of the Iranian peoples. In this case, the crises are going to multiply in a way that would lead to an inevitable explosion of the Iranian society, which will undoubtedly lead to a huge revolution that brings back the elegance of the Iranian spring once again with great chances of success.
In a speculation of the next US policy towards Iran, which is based on decisive and firmness, it is certain that Washington will pursue a tougher policy toward Iran’s destabilizing behavior and will issue more resolutions that will paralyze the Iranian economy and further isolate Tehran regionally and internationally. It is unlikely that Washington will decide to extend the exemption period for the eight oil importing countries, which will end in May, which would in turn pose a serious blow to Iranian oil exports, whose financial return is still the straw that the Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards are trying to clinch to.
Beyond the prospective of the US sanctions against Iran, which their impact has long been affecting most of Iran’s production and economic sectors, focusing on oil exports and the insistence on cutting it completely and issuing decisions against the institutions that control the country’s economy, especially the Revolutionary Guards, can all be referred to the American intention to paralyze the economic and financial system in the country, affecting all economic and financial sectors.
What has become so obvious nowadays is Washington’s intention to exert more pressure on Tehran by narrowing down and even drying up its financial resources and targeting its regional and international activities so not to give it any chance to complete its nuclear and missile weapons programs and the rest of its non-peaceful activities, as well as the reduction of Iranian regional influence by crippling the Revolutionary Guards’ ability to provide support to terrorist groups, as well as blocking any regional and international power from trying to provide the Iranian regime with any kind of assistance by trying to circumvent sanctions.
The results so far indicate that a near collapse of the country’s economy is about to take place accompanied by political and security collapse as well as a systematic escape of many Iranian political, military and security leaders outside Iran with their money they have saved over the past years and fear of the deteriorating conditions. An obsession which found its way recently to many Iranian officials who have lost hope of any secure future in the country after the deadlock of the government, led by the house of the Supreme Leader.
Any traveler to Tehran these days would clearly notice the repercussions of the US sanctions on all economic and production sectors inside Iran and how they all become almost paralyzed. This refutes Iran’s false arguments that the American sanctions have no effects on the Iranian economy. This raises many questions about the future of these deteriorating conditions in the coming months, especially as it will see more American and perhaps European pressure and sanctions on Tehran as a result of the Iranian regime’s support for terrorism and its insistence on interfering in the affairs of the region’s countries and on destabilizing the security and stability of neighboring countries in order to serve the project of exporting the Khomeini’s revolution.
With the severity of US sanctions on Iranian oil sector, Iran has sought to circumvent these sanctions in a number of ways, all of which have failed so far, including opening up on the neighboring countries, especially Iraq, to export Iranian products, after a sharp drop in trade between Iran and its traditional trading partners, mainly china and Russia, as a result of the suspension of a number of Chinese, Russian and Indian companies to trade with Tehran for fear of US sanctions. However, strengthening Iran’s trade with neighboring countries as attempts to improve its economic conditions will never be feasible and cannot in any way substitute its trade with major trading partners such as China and European countries. The size of trade with all neighboring countries, including Iraq, will never reach the volume of trade with one of Iran’s trading partners, such as China, and not to mention the difference in quality as well.
Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre
April 22, 2019