Amid unprecedented internal political tension and the warnings of crisis that would threaten the current regime in Iran due to the escalation of conflicts between the regime’s institutions from one side and Rouhani’s government supported by the reformist current and a popular base from the other side, calls to ease the situation between the conflicted currents came out under the name of “political truce” which called to end insults and accusations that have been intensely thrown recently between Rouhani’s party on the one hand and the symbols of the hard-line current and the Revolutionary Guard on the other.

The proposal of the so-called “political truce” which was called recently by one of the fiercest fundamentalist opponent to Rouhani’s government, Ali Reza Zakani, reveals the extent of concern that has infiltrated the corridors of the Iranian regime and the fear of a pro-Rouhani popular revolution against the mullahs’ regime and the Revolutionary Guard, which may end this regime. Zakani proposed unilaterally to activate a political truce that stops the storms of internal divisions and conflicts for a while. Some considered that as a fear from the regime’s fall and the possible rise of the reformists, while others considered it as a manoeuvre to buy time by which the hard-liners and the Revolutionary Guard would try to create the ultimate conditions to attack Rouhani’s government.

What could confirm the anxiety inside Iranian is what the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Mohammad Ali Jafari, has done of appointing Brigadier General Ismail Kuthari as a deputy to the so-called “TharAllah”, which is the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard that is responsible to secure the capital Tehran, who is from the fundamentalist current and trusted and supported by the Revolutionary Guard. The appointment came amid warnings from the hardliners of the possibility of troubles outbreak following the escalating conflict between them and President Hassan Rouhani. The main task of the TharAllah headquarters, which was founded in 1995, is to repel any protests and to suppress any action against the regime in Tehran if the security forces were unable to do so, similar to what happened in the city of Islamshahr, south of Tehran. These forces also took over the mission of Tehran’s security in 2009 after the controversial presidential election, which was followed by massive protests, which was named the “Green Revolution”.

Brigadier General Kuthari has experience in repression he has gained from his leadership of the so-called “Mohammad Rasul Allah Brigade”, which led the suppression against the protests that threatened the Iranian capital Tehran in 1999 and 2003 when he ended the reformist members of parliament protest inside the Shura Council in a protest against their refusal to run for the election by the Guardian Council.

It is certain that these changes and the call for a “political truce” reveal the internal political and popular turmoil inside Iran, especially after the Iranian judiciary spokesman warned three days ago of a new strife in the country. This also indicate that the Revolutionary Guard had received almost certain information that a popular revolution against the Iranian regime backed by Hassan Rouhani and external powers is eminent.

This apprehension has increased after the annual conference of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, which took place on Saturday in Paris. Participants in this conference stressed that the mullahs’ regime in Iran is in no way repairable and is on its way to collapse. Arab and Western officials in this conference called for the overthrow of the Iranian regime and many also pointed out that the fall of the Iranian regime has become possible and affordable.

The internal divisions in Iran have even reached the security and military services. In addition to the daily quarrels between the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian army, Masouma Breechi, the wife of Mujtaba Bagheri, one of pro-government Telegram channel’s director, also revealed that after her husband’s arrest on March 14 2017, it turned out that he did not commit any crime, and confirmed that the reason for this arrest is a conflict of interest and a quarrel between the Ministry of Intelligence on the one hand and the judiciary and the intelligence of the Revolutionary Guard on the other.

The hard-line current and the Revolutionary Guard’s leaders are still insisted to fail Rouhani and his team in running the country, which can be said that the government is fed up with that which asserted that every 7 days, it is facing a new challenge and a problem created by the fundamentalists in addition to creating secret headquarters by the Revolutionary Guard to thwart Rouhani’s government efforts since his first term, the most recent one was the attack against Zarif after returning from the European countries which imposed new sanctions on Tehran during his visit. The fundamentalists commented on that that the EU sanctions had reached Tehran before Zarif.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

4 July 2017