There are clear indications from inside Iran that the regime and the security services are so keen to firmly control the country in a way that abort any attempt for change or popular uprising. There have been reports about systematic repressive methods that the Iranian security services have begun to implement in order to prevent any future movement, especially in light of the current situation experienced by the Iranian regime at home and abroad, and there are signs that can be derived from the tightening of the security measures and the increase of the repressive activities inside Iran which tell that something is coming to threaten the regime and to erupt a revolution or protests against its policies, and the defeats and loses in the region may be the first signs of these protests which could hold the regime accountable for the feasibility of its policies in supporting terrorist groups and wasting billions of dollars at a time the Iranian people suffer the most difficult conditions.

One of these signs is the rise in mass executions carried out by the Iranian authorities against dissidents, political activists and human rights activists. Iran has recorded a new world record for the number of executions, with one execution every four hours. Observers believe that the escalation of mass execution by the regime comes as a part of a desperate attempt to prevent mass uprisings. The Revolutionary Guard follows these methods to counter any popular escalation that may be provoked by opponents, therefore, preventing the widespread of popular rejection to the regime. According to the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights in Iran, Ahmed Shahid, Iran has executed nearly 1000 prisoners in 2015, and this is the highest number in two decades, and there are still hundreds of journalists, bloggers, activists and opposition figures in the prisons and detention centers of the Iranian regime and are awaiting execution, which is a violation of laws and international conventions of human rights. Moreover, human rights activists assert that there are more than 5,000 sentenced to death in the Iranian jails, they may be executed secretly at any moment.

According to reports from the Iranian Human Rights Organization, since the beginning of this month until now, the Iranian authorities executed 56 persons, while the Iranian media admitted the execution of only seven of them, meaning that one person was executed every four hours, which is unprecedented and reveals a fear inside the regime from the emergence of strong opposition that is difficult to control if expanded.

Recently, the Iranian regime has made some changes in the military and security posts and gave Mohammad Ali Jafri the authority to choose more loyal, radical and ideological leaders such as Mohammad Reza Yazdi, who was appointed commander of the forces of the so-called “Muhammad Rasool Allah” and the appointment of Ismael Kuthari as deputy commander of what is known as “Thar Allah” and they are all supposed to protect the regime and the capital, Tehran, from any probable revolution or internal protests. These figures are known for their repression and the very tight security measures they follow, and they do not care about any international law.

It was clearly noted what Rouhani’s government is suffering of severe attack, criticism, secret and public efforts to thwart any agreement or effort that might lead to a success that increases the popular base of the reformists against the regime, which might pose a risk of protests backed by the government and the symbols of the reformist and moderate movement and perhaps military and security leaders who hide their hatred and opposition to the regime of the Wali el-Faqih and they are waiting the right opportunity to announce their rejection, and the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard and the House of the Supreme Leader are fully aware of that, and their intensified efforts to exclude such symbols have large indications of the growing fear of the regime of the possibility of the outbreak of a new Iranian spring that could topple it. Nonetheless, the case this time will be different and both governmental and popular rejection will be presence. Such efforts have intensified in the recent period in which the regime and the Revolutionary Guard were so keen to overthrow the government and to marginalize the post of the president and to tarnish the image of the reform leaders.

The nuclear deal between Iran and the West, the Total Agreement between Iran and France, the UNESCO document 2030, the control of the Revolutionary Guard over the country’s wealth and economy, opening channels with the United States and the attraction of foreign investment, are the main points of disagreement that the Revolutionary Guard and the House of Khamenei are using to attack Rouhani’s government to distort its image, break its grassroot and accuse it of exploitation and treachery.

Recently, Iran has witnessed several clashes between opponents and forces of the Revolutionary Guard in various areas where the Iranian authorities have been silent on many of them fearing the encouragement of the oppressed non-Persian nationalists for an armed revolution, especially as there is a warning of an armed revolution in Iran since it is considered that the main danger in Iran is the eruption of the Arab nationalism in Ahwaz through the Iraqi border or by other ethnic groups such as the Kurds, the Baluchs and the Azeris as the uprising of one nationality will necessarily give the rest an opportunity to get rid of this regime at home and abroad.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

16 July 2017