The situation inside Iran and the conflict between the rival parties over positions and powers reflects the fragility of the Iranian regime and what it suffers of structural rupture and increasing popular rejection in contrast to the bright image it is trying to demonstrate at home and abroad and the allegation of its strength, rigidity and ability to run the country and the cohesion of the Iranian peoples around it. It can be emphasized that the more popular speeches by the leaders of the Iranian regime, the more signs of the fake claims of the rigidity of the regime and that the situation is getting worse for what these speeches reflect a disrespect of the minds of the Iranian and Arab peoples.
The current dispute between the two Iranian conflicted sides over the French Total energy agreement reveals many mysteries and secrets that provide evidences and indications of the corruption of the of the Iranian regime’s institutions and their inability to run the country. It also exposes both sides, especially the Revolutionary Guard and the hard-liners who have attacked Rouhani’s government, stressing the existence of corruption and huge bribes in that agreement, which forced the reformist current and Rouhani’s government to reveal more to the people about the corruption of the Revolutionary Guard and the scandals in their secret agreements signed by it and refused to disclose its content to the public.
The Iranian arena is currently witnessing a series of accusations and criticisms and demands to reveal the facts that expose all parties. At a time the hard-liners, the Revolutionary Guard and their media are demanding the Iranian government to publish details of the agreement held by the Iranian Oil Ministry with the French Total, stressing that the government’s efforts to keep it away from public opinion proves the existence of corruption and large bribes, the reformists and the government of Rouhani respond by attacking the hard-liners and the Revolutionary Guard in particular and demanding them to disclose the contents and details of the oil agreements signed by the Revolutionary Guard and the headquarters Khatem al-Anbieaa institution during Ahmadinejad’s government of billions of dollars which were kept secret and details were not allowed to be published, such as implementing phases 15 and 16 of South Pars’ field, which cost the Iranian people more than six billion dollars.
The goal of this attack on Rouhani’s government under the pretext of the secrecy of Total agreement is to harass it and restrict its activities, especially within the area of holding agreements with Western countries so thwarting its efforts for further openness that could lead to the exclusion of the Revolutionary Guard from intervening in the economy and disrupting the interests of the hard-liners who totally exploit the wealth of the country. Apparently, and through monitoring Kehan newspaper of the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and headed by the hard-liner Hussein Shariatmadari, which has been busy attacking the government since Rouhani’s won a second term, this attack came from the head of the regime, Khamenei himself.
This point, among many more that pose the fuel of the conflict between the reformist and radical movements in Iran, especially the Nuclear Deal, the openness to the West and the control of the Revolutionary Guard over the economy, indicate that Iran heading towards partition between what is revolutionary, such as the Revolutionary Guard, the Basij and the hardline currents, and is not revolutionary, such as the reformist movement, the popular youth base and Rouhani’s government, as a stage for the continuation of the conflict. At this stage, the hardline current and the Iranian regime will lose much of its popular and official base and become weaker. The Iranian people will also become more convinced of the necessity of overthrowing the regime in order to make a way for the progress of the country, therefore, each side will struggle to reduce the influence and popularity of the other party by revealing scandals and distorting the image of its rival by unveiling large files of corruption in which large sums of money were wasted which could implicate both parties.
Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre
18 July 2017