As expected, US President Donald Trump decided on Tuesday to pull his country out from Iran nuclear deal, which he has been always describing it as “the worst deal in history”, and bringing back, even tightening, all US sanctions on Tehran. This decision is a clear evidence of the political mistakes made by the Iranian regime and its lack of wisdom and vision. These mistakes also stressed that they were responsible for bringing these undesirable consequences to the country and for taking it into a dark tunnel, where getting out of it, with such a regime facing international and regional strong will to change it, has become impossible. The withdrawal of the United States from the deal and the renew of sanctions on Iran are one of the serious steps taken by the US to change the Iranian regime.

Immediately after Trump’s decision, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke to his people in an attempt to reassure them that things would stay the same. Experts and observers, however, have been in doubt of that, especially since Iranian officials have not been able to hide their concern and fear from such a decision by the United States, mainly Khamenei, who became aware that the international community is serious about changing the mullahs’ regime in Iran.

Every party has its share of lose in Iran. Rouhani’s government, which has long boasted of its only achievement – a nuclear deal with the international community – sees itself today in deep shame. This decision has weakened its position strongly in the Iranian interior. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has always blessed the deal and announced more than once and in front of everyone that if the United States tore up the nuclear deal, Iran will burn it. Thus, he has become obliged to announce Iran’s withdrawal from the deal, while Rouhani and his team, the moderates and the reformist movement, still stress Iran’s commitment to the nuclear deal despite America’s withdrawal from it. This means that the withdrawal of the United States will exacerbate internal divisions and differences inside Iran. The Iranian peoples, on other side, are the biggest losers of these policies as the return of sanctions will further aggravate their economic and living conditions to an intolerable level.

The withdrawal of the United States from this deal would effectively means its collapse, because US sanctions constitute around 90% of the total international sanctions imposed on Iran, meaning that 90% of the sanctions lifted under the nuclear agreement will be imposed again on Iran. Furthermore, United States announced that these sanctions will be even tightened, that is, the sanctions will become much more than it was before the nuclear deal.

By observing Iran’s situation before signing the deal, especially between 2012 and 2014, when the Iranian economy was about to collapse, we could reach a clear conclusion that Trump’s recent decision will return Iran to these conditions. This will mean a sharp rise in poverty and unemployment, the collapse of the Iranian currency and the deterioration of the political, economic, social and security situation, and the loss of the Iranian regime control of the situation which will eventually explode due to the deteriorated situation, so that the Iranian people will have only one way to salvation which is to topple the Iranian regime, which will receive considerable support from some political, military and security leaders.

The United States is expected to tighten sanctions on Iran to include the nuclear and missile program, Iran’s support for terrorism, its interference in the region as well as human rights issues and Iran’s violation of international resolutions and laws, most notably Security Council resolution 2216 on Yemen. The United States will undoubtedly tighten its grip on the Revolutionary Guard, the main supporter of terrorism in the region, by listing it on the terrorist groups’ list. The European countries will have no choice but to follow American decisions, especially if they realize that the Iranian regime is about to fall.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

10 May 2018