Many question marks are raised about the armed incident that targeted the Revolutionary Guard forces in the city of Ahwaz during a military parade on what the Iranian regime calls the “Holy Defense Week”. However, the only answer for this is that the fires set by the Revolutionary Guard abroad are beginning to make their way into the Iranian interior and it appears that such incident is just the beginning of an armed actions in a broader armed struggle of the Iranian opposition, whatever were their origins, against the Iranian regime.

What happened in Iran on Saturday is a clear indicator of the demonstrations’ shift, which broke out inside Iran in more than 140 Iranian cities and continues to date, from the stage of being peaceful into the stage of angry revolution and armed struggle against the Iranian regime. This is a very dangerous sign to the regime, which foreshadows its near end. This also shows unequivocally the extent of the despair and frustration that has gripped the Iranian people due to the policies of the regime and the resulting disasters and crises that have become difficult to coexist with. This prompted the Iranian people to think about taking actions and choosing armed struggle in order to get rid of this unjust regime, after losing hope of reaching their rights or reforming the regime through peaceful demonstrations and rallies that have been launched throughout the country, and not received any attention from the officials, in contrast, they were received with more intransigence and rejection of popular demands and with oppressive methods reached the extent of murder, detention and rape.

The Iranian regime is trying currently to exploit this incident in a way that serves its interests by considering it as a terrorist attack aims to undermine the security and stability of the Iranian people as well as the region as a whole, and thus turning this incident into a pretext for further violence against the opposition of the Wali al-Faqih regime at home and abroad, especially that this incident has took place in Al-Ahwaz, a city of Arab majority that embraces a strong opposition against the Iranian regime, which is sought to be eliminated by the Revolutionary Guard in all means. Therefore, the regime will take this incident as a pretext to expand the murder, assassination and most violent and oppressive actions against the Arab opposition in Al-Ahwaz.

On the other hand, the Iranian regime exploited the Arabic feature of the city of Al-Ahwaz to launch its poisoned arrows against some Arab countries by accusing them of standing behind those militants who carried out this terrorist attack, as well as spreading propaganda by trying to convert such internal incident into an internationalized one and thus diverting its course of action.

The main objective of the Iranian authorities from internationalizing this issue and accusing foreign countries of involvement in it is to blackout the reality of this event from the public opinion at home and abroad, and that it was not within the framework of internal opposition to the Iranian regime, but foreign hands were behind it. That is, the regime is trying to promote the idea that there is no internal opposition to the regime’s policies that has resorted to armed action to achieve its rights and to push injustice and oppression. And summoning the UAE’s charge d’affaires by the Iranian Foreign Ministry, and the accusations to Saudi Arabia of standing behind this incident are all come in this context.

With regard to the prospected Iranian response to this incident, it is expected that the Iranian authorities will increase their repressive activities and expand the systematic targeting of those who oppose the thoughts of the Wali al-Faqih, especially in the Arab cities, in addition to considering this incident as an opportunity that the regime can exploit to divert the public opinion at home from the growing crises, as well as promoting the idea that the enemies of Iran lie in wait to harm the Iranian peoples, which requires the Iranian people to stand by the regime and its security and military forces to deal with these enemies. This, however, will not be useful after some Iranian peoples have declared their resort to armed action against the Iranian regime, what makes us wait for more such armed actions against the Iranian military forces in the future.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

24 September  2018