A security and military breach has revealed the weakness of the Iranian forces, both the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian army, and demonstrated their growing weakness, contrary to what the Iranian regime claims of possessing a force comparable to other global and regional powers. The recent incident showed the weakness of the moral and professional strength of the Revolutionary Guard, as its members escaped to the sewers for fear of four people carrying light weapons, at a time its leaders praise and boast of their land, sea and air capabilities.

Al-Ahwaz incident has proven that the Revolutionary Guard is totally incapable of protecting itself, how could it then be protecting Iran? It also exposed the false claims of the Iranian regime’s leaders who enjoy threatening the region and the whole world with their Revolutionary Guard while intimidating the Iranian interior. This has been proven to be nothing, but a scarecrow based on false propaganda. In the most extreme circumstances in which the Revolutionary Guard is expected to be on high alert, it was targeted by a small group that was able to start a war and a large-scale fight against Iranian military forces, killing more than 25 people and injuring dozens more.

This incident has shaken the pillars of the Iranian regime, which appeared to be confused in dealing with it, especially at the beginning, when it began to launch threats and statements left and right before even conducting any investigation about the incident, making some believe that it was a planned operation by the Iranian regime, as it looks so strange that official statements were made about the incident before any investigation, even preliminary, is conducted. However, some believe that the Iranian regime’s behavior has revealed the extent of its confusion and fear, so it tried to acquit the Iranian opposition and instead accusing foreign countries in an effort to contain the armed operations inside Iran.

What makes this incident more sensitive is that it came amid increasing anger and popular discontent with the Iranian regime and its policies, as well as after the security forces exercising various forms of repression and violence against the Iranian opposition throughout the country, especially in the Arab city of Ahwaz, with Western and regional pressure on Iran for its support for terrorism and its blatant interference and its quest to destabilize the security and stability of the region and the world at large.

The success of this operation might motivate the Iranian opposition groups to arm themselves and attack the Revolutionary Guard and its security apparatuses in wider areas of Iran as a means of self-defense and to put an end to the persecution of the Iranian regime, after exposing its weakness and being powerful against the unarmed civilians only! Will the Ahwaz attack be the beginning of an armed struggle adopted by the opposition and the Iranian people as a means of self-defense and the restoration of the country from the mullahs’ regime?

By fully monitoring this incident, it does not seem to be the work of any international security or intelligence services, as Tehran claims, rather, it is an operation carried out by some militants as a reaction to the persecution to the Iranian peoples by the Revolutionary Guard. Moreover, this group did not appear to be following the usual footsteps of terrorist groups when they carry out their terrorist activities!

What is interesting is the Iranian regime’s attempt to exploit this incident to promote its claims of having enemies who want harm to the Iranian peoples and its efforts to divert the Iranian public opinion from the reality of the crises and problems the country is experiencing thanks to the wrong policies of the regime and governments and using this as a pretext to target the opposition at home and support agents abroad in an attempt to target the Arab Coalition Forces for the restoration of legitimacy in Yemen, especially after accusing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates of supporting those who carried out the operation in Al-Ahwaz. The regime has vowed to avenge the perpetrators. This means that the Iranian regime plans to expand the circle of terrorist activities in Yemen and other countries experiencing an Iranian presence.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

26 September  2018