There are increasing international outcry condemning Iranian policies in the region and the world, while warnings of the activities of the Iranian regime destabilizing the security and stability of the region escalate. On the other hand, inside Iranian society, the popular rejection of the policies of the regime is growing and demonstrations that reject these policies continue in more than one place in Iran. On their end, experts believe that popular rejection of the regime is increasing in all Iranian cities, and the regime, its governments and institutions no longer have the slightest acceptance at the grassroot level, which has lost faith in all elements of the regime.

In its current crisis, the Iranian government has proven to its citizens that it has failed miserably in running the country and that it is unable to address the crises that are storming the country. Amidst the trade of charges and accusations between Iranian officials, institutions and parties, the Iranian citizen stands powerless watching the insistence of his country’s regime on its policies which have almost destroyed the country and dragged it to a point where things are much difficult to deal with. i.e. the full collapse of the Iranian state.

During the 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly, we witnessed a higher tone condemning Iran’s behavior and terrorism, demanding to deter it and to put an end to its destructive policies in the region and the world. In other words, this would mean that Iran is going to be more isolated internationally. Moreover, by analyzing the speeches of the heads of states and delegations at this session, it is clear that calls for punishing Iran and condemning its behavior and terrorist activities have increased dramatically by more than 50 per cent compared to previous sessions of the United Nations General Assembly, and the language used to condemn Iran was even more severe in this session and delivered a clear message to the Iranian regime, either to abandon these destructive policies and terrorist activities and engage in serious political action under the umbrella of international laws and conventions and treaties, or further sanctions and international and regional isolation will be in place, which would ensure inciting a popular revolution to overthrow the regime and its destructive institutions due to the worsening crises and the deterioration of the situation inside Iran.

The Iranian government hopes that its plans to circumvent sanctions could help it to mitigate its impact on the country. However, experts emphasize that the Iranian authorities’ reliance on some European countries in circumventing the sanctions will certainly be fruitless. These attempts will have no effect to protect Iran from the impact of the sanctions and the European Union’s announcement to establish a legal entity to continue trade with Tehran, especially the purchase of Iranian oil, and therefore circumventing the US sanctions imposed on Tehran, would be of little effect, as evidenced by the Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Jawad Zarif, who threatened that his country would withdraw from the Nuclear Deal if Iranian interests were not guaranteed.

At the same time, the countries and companies that have announced a suspension of their trade with Iran and withdrawal from Iranian markets in response to US sanctions are on the rise, most recently South Korea’s announcement to stop the import of oil from Iran, and Malaysia’s intention to suspend trade with Iran as well as many European companies which have announced their withdrawal from the Iranian market.

Thus, the Iranian calculations of its ability along with some other countries to circumvent the sanctions are wrong, which means that crises and internal problems will increase inside Iran in the coming days. Externally, Tehran will be subjected to further pressures and international and regional isolation, and some of the Iranian regime’s allies will begin to abandon it and adopt a policy of neutrality towards what is happening inside Iran. For instance, the Russians, Chinese and some countries that have relations with Iran have begun to realize that the current regime in Tehran has no chance to survive and that it is on its way to collapse. The Russian policy towards Iran inside Syria is a good example of the shift and how some Iranian officials n have heavily criticized the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

October 1,  2018