After the armed attack against the Iranian military parade in the city of al-Ahwaz, the leaders of the Iranian regime were quick to deny any responsibility of the terrorist organization of ISIS in this incident and to throw accusations east and west, stressing that the perpetrators are an opposition group of al-Ahwaz itself. Then the contradicted statements started to emerge from all sides, where no one was safe from Iran’s accusations. Confusion was the mainstream in Iran’s dealing with this incident but what was so clear is the threats and the promise of avenging.

The Iranian leaders have gone too far in their promises to the Iranian people to avenge those who were killed in that attack. They tried to present the attack as a terrorist operation rather than an armed struggle, although they denied any connection to ISIS in it and that who perpetrate it was a group of al-Ahwaz opposition. By such claims, the Iranian regime aimed to create a pretext to expand the cycle of violence and repression against its opponents in al-Ahwaz, and to distort the image of the opposition before the Iranian public as well as the attempt to blame some other countries in this attack to discredit its reputation and try to break its popular base inside Iran, mainly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

However, the announcement by the Revolutionary Guards of targeting IS militants in the east of the Euphrates in Syria with five ballistic missiles type Zulfiqar (750km) and Qiam (800 km) has confirmed the extent of the confusion that is dominating the Iranian decisions after leaders repeatedly denying any connection between ISIS and this attack!

More importantly, this operation revealed Iran’s incapability in Syria, and that it is unable to reach ISIS headquarters in Syria and Iraq, despite its large military deployment in these countries, which made it resort to firing from a long distant. But what is really ironic is that two missiles out of these six fired by the Revolutionary Guard towards Syria have exploded in the Iranian city of Kermanshah, which means that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has wasted billions of the country’s funds under the pretext of developing the missile system, especially Qiam 1, but still ineffective and continues to fall before reaching its targets. Such missiles would even pose a greater danger to their operators more than that on the targets! That is why Iranian activists have launched a hashtag called “The Missile Scandal,” in which they posted videos of what they claimed to be a fire made by the fallen missiles. According to Iranian media, a rocket has fallen on a village in Sarab Yavari district of Kermanshah, the capital of the Kurdish majority province of Kermanshah, while the second fell in the city of Javanrud in the same province.

After bonding themselves to achieving revenge, Iranian leaders found no one to target but IS militants in Syria who can be easily targeted and then claiming to have fulfilling their promises to the Iranian interior to keep their face, and to prove to their tools and agents in the region that they are still strong, and to distract the local public opinion from the crises and economic problems they are suffering for a few days, and promote their imaginary capabilities and power. They also aimed from this play to send threatening messages to neighboring countries and the United States that Iran is capable to ignite chaos and wars in the region if it has been threatened. However, experts and specialists believe that Iran has not achieved any of these goals, and that its operation was counterproductive since it has revealed the confusion and weakness of decision-making institutions and military institutions inside Iran, as well as the ineffectiveness of Iranian weapons, especially missiles, which are the pride of Iranian industry by which it was threatening the world!

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

October 3,  2018