Iran’s political, religious and military leadership in Iran is very close to announce significant changes in the country’s internal and external policies. A speculation that is based on scientific foundations and a careful reading of the internal situation in Iran both at the popular level, and what that includes of crises that have become impossible to be solved or even limit, as well as at the political level and the Iranian limited options to face US sanctions and international isolation, combat corruption and address internal crises.
In a careful follow-up to the Iranian official rhetoric and the decisions regarding the policies of the country at the current stage, we can see the certainty of the Iranian regime’s symbols, especially regarding their delusional calculations that were only in the realm of wishes by seeking to turn Iran into a regional and global power by exporting the Khomeini’s revolution to neighboring countries and building a Safavid empire at the expense of the Arab states. After all the human and financial costs and heavy losses, which weighed heavily on the country and brought it back decades, the results were completely counterproductive and against the interest of the people, government and regime of Iran. On one hand, the people are now suffering from the deterioration of economic and living conditions as well as oppression and restricting their freedoms. On the other hand, the government is gradually losing its authority in favor of the regime, and it is now acting like a scapegoat while the regime is collapsing and losing its popular base on the one hand and the legitimacy of its rule on the other.
Therefore, what the country is experiencing of crises, political, economic and security problems, and the absence of any programs or policies by the regime or the government to face US sanctions or to deal with internal crises, as well as suffering from the regional and global isolation, all of the above would be sufficient to force the Iranian regime to make a major changes in its structure, which may lead to its fall. Hence, the remaining option for the regime fluctuates between the inevitability of the fall and the probability of survival.
The indicators of the imminent collapse of the regime have a great influence in forcing its symbols to modify their policies, fully review them and abandon their interferences in the region and supporting terrorism, especially as some of these indicators came from political figures who are fully aware of the regime’s real capability, such as Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council of the system, who acknowledged the rampant corruption in the pillars of the regime and state institutions, and warned of the growing corruption and incompetence and likened to a time bomb, and noted that if the situation not dealt with seriously, the regime will fall from within.
Moreover, the radical conservative politician Javad Karimi Ghodoosi, a former commander in the Revolutionary Guard, said that 50% of the Iranian Shura Council members are seeking to topple the regime, adding that they support the leaders of the protests Iran had witnessed following the 2009 presidential election when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was re-elected for a second term, which was called the Green Movement, which almost overthrew the Iranian regime if not an iron fist and oppressive methods of the security apparatuses were used against the people who revolted against the regime.
Former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami has also indirectly criticized the supreme leader Ali Khamenei in a speech posted on his official website, saying that the required government is the government that the people are satisfied with. Khatami stressed that if the regime does not accept reforms, it will certainly fail, and warned of the danger of mistrust between the regime and the Iranian people, if that happened, then we will not need an external enemy, because the pillars of the regime that are depend on the confidence of the people will be weakened, according to Khatami. Mohammad Reza Tajik, the political advisor to former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami, has also likened the current Iranian situation to the Titanic ship, which fully sank with its crew and passengers in the sea in 1912.
Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the first Iranian supreme leader and the founder of the current Iranian republic, also referred to the weakness of the regime and the near collapse of its institutions. He said that the basic structure for any society is the satisfaction of its people as there is no guarantee that we remain and others will go! Khomeini added that people must be satisfied in any way, and coercion should not have a place in society, and mentioned the major crises in the country which could lead to the collapse of the regime. Iran’s banned “Freedom Movement” party also warned of what it called the danger of regime collapse and the disintegration of the country, calling for listening to the demands of the people instead of suppressing protests with violence.
Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani also openly talked about Iran’s growing public anger and irritation over the regime’s policies, accusing the government of not providing solutions to the problems faced by the Iranians saying that social and economic problems are on the rise in Iran without paying any effort for addressing them and that the Iranian regime is collapsing from within, a collapse that has not been complete yet but there is a great possibility of this happening according to her.
In addition to the above, the perception of the current head of the regime, supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, that Iran will face the biggest political crisis after his departure, about choosing the person who will replace him as the highest authority in the country, and the process of transition of power as well as the emergence of a growing religious and political trend which believes in the need to abolish the position of the supreme leader or to limit its powers at least. More importantly, many of the political, military and security figures inside Iran believes that it is in their interests to join this trend to remove the biggest obstacle to the progress of the country and to liberate its institutions from the grip of the house of the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guard.
Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre
January 2, 2019