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Erdogan puts Turkey among tough choices

An internal and external setback of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are compounded by the failure of the AK Party to impose political, economic and security burdens on the Turkish state. And because of this Turkey has put itself in the trap of American sanctions and the results of anti-Arab policies, supporting terrorist groups and seeking to re-establish the laurels of Ottoman Empire at the expense of the Arab and Islamic peoples, in conjunction with the popular setbacks in the Turkish local elections after losing in major cities such as: Ankara, Istanbul, Antalya, Aden, Izmir and others, with escalation between the United States and Turkey regarding the insistence of Turkey on completing the deal to buy the system “S-400” defense from Russia that will expose them to very serious penalties, which have negative repercussions on the Turkish interior in general.

In an explanation of the Turkish insistence on buying this Russian system, although Ankara will be subjected to serious sanctions, including depriving them from the Patriot missile system and the newest F-35 warplanes in the world, and the supply of military equipment. It is obvious that Turkey would like to buy the Russian loyalty in return of Moscow’s support to the Turkish president locally and international, but this will cause Turkey to lose most of her power and influence in the region than what Turkey can get.

What is more clear is that Russia is the first winner of this deal economically, militarily and influentially because the deployment of this Russian system in Turkey would be such a threat to the National security of the NATO, and on the other hand, it is an economic propaganda of Russian weapons that could induce some countries in the European Union to obtain this Russian system, and this will contribute significantly the return of the Russian bear to global competition in the field of armament.

Turkey’s gains from this deal are very modest. Its objectives are shaped by the personal interests of President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The recommendations come from the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is moving towards strengthening strategic relations with Russia and working to crystallize geopolitical interests between Turkey, Qatar and Iran to form an alliance supporting him (Erdogan) internationally by making several concessions to the stronger party in this alliance which is Russia, as the organization is currently seeking to strengthen Russian influence in the region at the expense of the Arab and Islamic peoples, and against the United States, which announced that it is going to put this organization (Muslim Brotherhood) on the list of terrorist groups.

Moreover, and against the interests of the Turkish state and its people, and without any regard for the security and stability of the region, President Erdogan believes that opening the way to Russian influence in the region and insisting on the purchase and deployment of the Russian S-400 will put pressure on Washington with regard to the Kurdish file in Syria, while the Kurdish are supported by the United States, while Erdogan’s government sees that as an extension of the PKK, and this means that Turkey will lose all the benefits from the project of development of the aircraft “F-35”, as well as losing it’s status in the strategy of NATO, and huge economical losses that could be by billions. All of this could be happened due to Turkey’s desire to buy the Russian system “S-400” and satisfy the Russian bear.

In addition, the United States has a lot of pressure on Ankara, including increased military and logistical support for the Kurds, support for their positions against Turkey politically and diplomatically, and its ability to impose severe financial, economic and trade sanctions on Turkey, which will lead to further economic deterioration and the flight of investments from the inside of Turkey.

There is no doubt that Turkey’s alliance with small countries such as Qatar, which is hostile to the majority of countries in the region because of its subversive policies and support for terrorism, and Iran, which is isolated from the region and the world, suffers from serious economic and financial crises. While the Muslim Brotherhood has witnessed a fall in the East and West, will not be in the interest of the Turkish people who began to express his anger and displeasure with Erdogan’s policies and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in a way that illustrates the future vision of a non-Erdogan Turkey.

Al Mezmaah Studies & Research Centre

May 6, 2019

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